Market Pricing Tool

Expected Move Calculator

Calculate the exact 1-standard deviation price range that the options market has priced in for a given time frame based on Implied Volatility (IV).

Market Data

Current Stock / Asset Price ($)

Implied Volatility (IV %)

You can find IV on your broker's option chain.

Days to Expiration / Event

Enter the spot price, IV, and DTE to calculate the statistically expected market move.

How to use Expected Move in Trading

The "Expected Move" represents a one standard deviation (~68% probability) range of where the underlying asset's price will close by expiration. It is calculated directly from the Implied Volatility (IV) priced into the options market.

Setting Take Profits: It is statistically rare for a stock to close outside its expected move unless a massive catalyst occurs. Therefore, the edges of the expected move serve as highly accurate take-profit zones for swing trades.
Selling Premium: Options sellers (Iron Condors, Strangles) use the expected move to determine the "safe" strike prices to sell. Selling outside the expected move puts the odds in your favor (approx 68% win rate before adjusting for the volatility risk premium).
Earnings Plays: Before a company reports earnings, the IV spikes. You can use this calculator to determine exactly how large of a gap up/down the market is expecting the stock to make on the earnings release.